If you assumed the affordable end of the market was the busy end, the data says otherwise, and the reason it says otherwise is worth understanding.
Here is the expected market time for detached homes in San Diego County by price band. Under $500,000 is 126 days. The range from $500,000 to $750,000 is 108 days. From $750,000 to $1 million is 81 days. From $1 million to $1.25 million is 74 days. From $1.5 million to $2 million is 72 days.
The market gets faster as it gets more expensive, right up to about $2 million. Homes priced between $1.5 and $2 million are selling in roughly 42% less time than homes priced under $500,000.
That is the opposite of how most people picture this market, and it comes down to who is affected by mortgage rates and who is not.
Rate sensitivity runs downhill
At the entry level, the monthly payment is the entire decision. Mortgage rates are at 6.75% today, up from 6% at the end of February, and have recently hit their highest level since July 2025. Every quarter-point move in rates changes what a first-time buyer qualifies for, so demand at that end contracts almost immediately when rates rise.
Move up the price ladder and the payment matters less. Buyers are putting more down, more of them are moving equity from a previous sale, and a meaningful share are not particularly rate-driven at all.
Mike Simonsen calls the other half of this the wealth effect. When the stock market is running well above where it was a year ago, buyers whose net worth sits partly in equities feel materially wealthier, and they stop waiting for rates to cooperate. It showed up dramatically in San Francisco this June, where 44 homes closed at least $1 million above asking price. In all of 2025, that happened eight times.
So while the bottom of the market is stalled by affordability, the upper-middle is being supported by something mortgage rates do not touch.
Where the effect runs out
It is worth being precise about the ceiling, because this pattern does not extend indefinitely.
Above $2 million, San Diego County slows down substantially. From $2 to $4 million is 113 days. From $4 to $6 million is 229 days. Above $6 million is 624 days. Overall, luxury sits at 151 days and is expected to remain sluggish through the rest of the year.
The fast lane is roughly $1 million to $2 million. Not the bottom, and not the top.
What that means locally
The median Encinitas sale price in June was $1,937,500, which falls squarely within the fastest segment of the county. Encinitas closed in June at 100% of asking, with a median of 13 days on the market. Cardiff by the Sea closed at 101% of asking in 8 days.
That is not a coincidence. Our stretch of coast sits mostly in the price range that is currently least dependent on where mortgage rates go next, which is a meaningful advantage in a year where rates keep moving.
It also means that if you are selling above $2 million here, you are in a different market than your neighbor at $1.6 million, and the strategy has to reflect that. Rancho Santa Fe is at 303 days. Del Mar is at 86. Same county, same week, very different conversations.
If you want to know which band your home actually sits in and what that means for timing, get in touch.
